Message Box Pro will continue after the election, providing strategic advice, message guidance, and polling analysis for everyone who works in politics. The 2028 cycle starts on the first Wednesday in November, and let’s not forget there are plenty of elections in 2027, too. I’ll have a lot more to say about what that looks like once the election is in the rearview, so stay tuned.
Okay, enough housekeeping. Let’s get to today’s memo.
1. The Final Targets
In the final stretch, campaigns are looking under every stone for every possible voter. They usually divide the universe into two groups. The “turnout universe” is unlikely voters who would almost certainly vote Democratic if they voted, and the “persuasion universe” is swing voters choosing between two candidates and the couch.
While I acknowledge these two universes exist, I kind of hate how campaigns treat them as entirely different groups of people. We treat the base as people who only need to be reminded to vote, not persuaded as to why they should.
Too often, campaigns stop talking to swing voters as part of their GOTV program out of fear that they’ll accidentally turn out a vote for the other side, as if they’re all just closeted Republicans.
My recommendation is to treat everyone as a persuasion target and think of GOTV as the time to make the final sale to everyone. Make a real argument to the base and keep talking to the persuasion universe, because the data this cycle shows many voters are open to voting for Democrats but need convincing in these final days.
