The State of Play with Three Weeks to Go

Election Day is three weeks away. I can’t believe we are this close to the finish line in such a high-stakes election. I know everyone is working night and day, and every decision at this point feels monumental.

If I can help, don’t hesitate to reach out by tagging me in the Message Box Pro Discord or emailing me at [email protected].

In this week’s memo, I want to use the latest polling and research to lay out the political landscape for the final stretch.

The political environment has been remarkably steady since the Iran War began. Trump’s approval dropped when the war started, the Democratic lead on the generic ballot expanded, and the momentum shifted further toward Democrats.

This doesn’t mean Trump has plateaued. He hasn’t. His approval rating keeps declining, breaking through what many people believed was his floor. Nate Silver has Trump’s net approval at minus 24.

As the chart shows, Trump’s numbers keep inching down. The Democratic lead on the generic ballot has grown 2.5 points in the last month. With three weeks to go, these are very bad trendlines for the GOP.

Look, anything can happen in politics, but the dynamics haven’t changed in months.

Democrats live in fear of an October Surprise, but October is already half over. There’s little time left, and millions have already voted. A recent Politico poll shows that even if Trump could engineer an October Surprise, it would have little impact. Only 10% of voters say they’d be more likely to vote Republican if gas prices dropped a buck per gallon.

I suspect a drop that big would help the GOP more than this poll suggests, but any change is happening on the margins. The die is largely cast.

Republicans want to make this election about anything other than the economy and the cost of living. They’re calling Democrats “socialists,” focusing on the comments of Twitch streamers, and running some of the most offensive anti-trans ads imaginable.