The difference between a good midterm and a great one is younger voters. Can we make them care enough to turn out and vote for Democrats when they do?
For years, at least since 2008, the youth vote was a question of if, not whom. Young voters were overwhelmingly Democratic. If they voted, they voted for Democrats.
That changed in 2024. Young voters swung toward Trump in record numbers, and the Democratic advantage among voters under 30 seriously eroded.
The narrative over the last two years is that young voters have abandoned Trump. This assertion, unlike many narratives these days, is backed up by data. But are these voters leaving Trump and coming over to the Democratic side, or are they turning their back on politics? And if so, how do we persuade them to vote with us?
The most recent edition of the Harvard Youth Poll, a survey of 2,018 18- to 29-year-olds fielded in late March and early April, is the gold standard in public opinion research on young voters. It offers some important, actionable insights.
1. Young Voters Lean Democratic
I want to start with the good news, because we could all use a little good news these days. Donald Trump's hold on young voters was a blip, not a lasting shift in the electoral coalition. In the final NYT/Siena poll of 2024, Trump's favorability among voters 18-29 was 43%. In the new Harvard poll, his job approval rating is an abysmal 25%, exactly what it was at this point in 2018.
Democrats lead on the generic ballot, 36-22 among all 18- to 29-year-olds, widening to 45-26 among registered voters. The advantage is particularly large with young Black and Latino voters.
While those numbers seem good, and they are, it's important to put them in context. In the spring 2018 poll, likely young voters preferred Democratic control of Congress 69% to 28%, a 41-point margin, up from 32 points in Fall 2017. By spring 2026, Democrats lead 45% to 26% among young registered voters, a 19-point margin. The filters aren't identical (2018 was "most likely voters," 2026 is "registered voters," a lower bar), which should make 2026's number look better for Democrats if anything. It doesn't. The Democratic advantage with young voters today is less than half what it was heading into Trump's first midterm.
So young voters are just as unhappy with Trump in 2026 as they were in 2018, but they're less enthusiastic about Democrats. Here's why.
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