Despite the fact that Republican presidents (H.W. Bush, W. Bush, and Trump) have governed the U.S. into massive deficits, recessions, and financial crises — and Democratic presidents (Clinton, Obama, and Biden) have picked up the pieces and returned the country to prosperity — voters have consistently trusted Republicans more than Democrats on the economy.
Republicans gained this longstanding advantage in the 1980s under Reagan, lost it briefly when the 2008 Great Recession started under George W. Bush, and then regained it when the recovery took longer than expected under Obama.
Trump supercharged the Republican economic advantage because, in addition to being a Republican, he was viewed by much of the electorate as a highly successful businessman. You and I know that image doesn't withstand a moment of scrutiny — given Trump's multiple bankruptcies and shady business practices — but decades of reality TV and aggressive PR can create an impression that belies the facts.
This inherent and longstanding Republican advantage on the economy has shaped politics for much of my lifetime. It has given Republicans an edge in the key economic debates and budget battles, and it has trimmed Democratic ambitions. As a party, we've had less margin for error when trying to push an economic agenda.
Ultimately, Trump won the White House because voters who didn't particularly like him or much of his policy agenda believed he would lower their costs.
He didn't, and now the Republican advantage on the economy has essentially evaporated.
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