Understanding what Democratic voters actually believe — separate from the people who post about politics for a living — is one of the most underrated advantages a candidate or operative can have. Here's what the latest Times/Siena poll tells us, and what to do with it.
The New York Times poll caught my attention last week. Because of its track record, the sophistication of its methodology, and its impact on the political conversation, the Times/Siena poll is the one poll I always think is worth a deep dive. The top-line numbers were devastating for Trump — Democrats with a 10-point advantage on the generic ballot, Trump's approval under 40, and the absolute collapse of his 2024 coalition.
Those results were interesting, but they mostly confirmed what other polls have been telling us.
The more interesting findings involve the Democrats. The pollsters asked Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents a series of questions that shed light on how Democratic voters see the world and the upcoming elections.
This information is most actionable for the folks still competing in primaries, but it's also helpful as we think about turning out the base and communicating with our most likely supporters this fall. And the Democratic-leaning independents in this poll are also swing voters who may or may not turn out depending on the campaigns we run.
The poll is also useful for separating the signal of what Democratic voters actually think from the noise generated on social media by hardcore partisans and activists.
If you want to dive into the crosstabs, you can find them HERE.
Here are five takeaways from the poll:
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